Saturday, August 28, 2021

Few Storms In Metro Past 24 Hours

View of Catalinas this morning from campus at a bit after 8:00 am MST.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24 hours through 1503 UTC (8:03 am MST) shows flashes over much of Pima County (from Atmo and Vaisala). Some early flashes were near here - there had been pre-dawn showers around Campbell and River and I suspect that there was bit of thunder here. There were a few reports of rain across the ALERT network (below - for 24 hours ending at 8:00 am).

IR satellite image above shows Hurricane Ida in the GoM and a large MCS at north end of GoC at about 4:00 am today. The GoC convection has left behind at least one large MCV. Outflow winds gusted from the south to over 30 mph at Yuma and jumped the dewpoint up to an ugly 78 F at 6:00 am this morning.

The morning sounding from TUS/TWC continues with a fair amount of high-based CAPE - above about 600 mb with light east-northeast steering winds. The 500 mb pattern (below from Univ. of Wyoming) continues to be very chaotic with height gradients and light winds. There appears to be an anticyclonic center between here and Phoenix.

The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast below is for composite radar echoes at 7:30 pm this evening - storms again over much of Pima County including the northern parts of the metro area.

The current NHC forecast for Huricane Nora (above) continues to head the storm our way, with it dissipating south of here. The visible satellite image below shows both Nora and Ida over in the GoM. The NHC forecast for Ida (second below) increases the storm to a Cat 3 or stronger hurricane and takes it northwest toward southern Louisiana and New Orleans. 

Looks like an interesting and stormy week ahead.

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