Another morning with clear skies - Catalinas above at 7:30 am MST. Yesterday was fair and hot (high of 100 F at airport), with no rainfall and no CG flashes across all of Arizona - below shows plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 0113 am this early morning.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (above from SPC website) shows that the very large anticyclone has intensified over the south-central US - as predicted by various models for last several days. All of Arizona is under southwesterly winds aloft.
Morning sounding plot for TWC/TUS (above) continues stable and dry with less than an inch of precipitable water. The total precipitable water plot at 14 UTC this morning (below) shows that the very moist air remains south of 30 degrees north. Surface dewpoints over Arizona this morning are mostly in the 40s and 50s F.
Man question for today is whether moisture can increase enough to support afternoon showers and storms. The track of TS Madeline (above from NHC) is favorable for a push of higher moisture up the GoC - but will it make it today? The 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR at Atmo forecasts only scattered light showers or sprinkles around the metro area (below) through midnight. I would be very surprised to find measurable rainfall in my gauge tomorrow morning.
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