A look at the Catalinas at 600 am MST this morning.
Thunderstorms remained well south and southwest of Tucson yesterday - as per plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0103 am (0803 UTC) below, from Atmo and Vaisala. Basically a dry and down day here.
Visible satellite image at 1426 UTC this morning (above) shows some cloudiness over northern Sonora and southeast Arizona. Hurricane Ian is off the South Carolina coast, about to make its third landfall.
Video of Jim Cantore reporting from the west coast of Florida yesterday graphically shows the dangers of being outside in a Cat 4 hurricane. See:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/09/29/hurricane-videos-jim-cantore/
The 500 mb level continues to be a mess - above shows the 12 UTC analysis. There is a weak anticyclone centered somewhere north of Tucson and a weak trough, or closed low south of Tucson. The cloudiness shown above is associated with the feature south of here, which is forecast to hang around through the weekend.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS is also pretty ugly. There is a bit of CAPE, if boundary layer heats out to around 700 mb. There are almost no steering winds, so some spots could see heavy rain, if storms develop. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast does get storms going over much of the metro area - graphic below shows model rainfall through midnight tonight.
Current morning forecast from NWS indicates POPs for measurable rain at airport of 40 percent today.Time will tell, as September draws to an end.
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