Chance For Showers?

Pre-sunrise view of Catalinas, with bit of cloudiness, early this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0133 am MST this morning (below, from Atmo and Vaisala). There was only a bit of thunderstorm activity indicated south of the Border.

At 500 mb this morning (above) the large ridge over the western US and Canada continues, but there is no single or clear center of circulation, due to the very weak height gradients and light winds.

The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) continues to have mostly light/variable winds; however, layer from 850 to 700 mb has some easterly winds over 20 kt. There is only 1.04" of precipitable water and little or no potential CAPE.

The forecast models bring in slightly higher moisture content from the east during the day. The 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo forecasts some light showers in eastern Pima county through midnight - above forecast is of total rainfall through midnight tonight. Below is morning graphic from the NWS TUS Forecast Office, which is currently forecasting a 20 percent chance for showers at the airport.

Down in the Caribbean, Hurricane Ian is strengthening, and it is forecast to become a Category 3 storm as it moves northward into the eastern GoM, and eventually Florida - as per morning outlook from NHC above. Ian is shown below in a 16 UTC IR satellite image and appears to be a very large storm.