Pre-sunrise view of Ricons around 6:00 am MST this morning.
The southwest half of Arizona and northwest Mexico were storm free yesterday, as per plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0103 am this morning (below, from Atmo and Vaisala).
The closed low at 500 mb (above), southwest of San Diego, may be already ready opening up into a trough. Models predict this trough to move across Arizona tomorrow.
The sounding for TWC/TUS this morning has some CAPE and PW of 1.35 inches. The PW did not fall below an inch yesterday as some models had predicted.
Models are all in agreement, forecasting storms and showers this evening. Forecast below (from 12 UTC WRF-RR) for composite radar echoes, shows the greater Tucson area very active at 6:00 pm today. Forecast for precipitation through midnight tonight (from same model run) indicates measurable rain across all of our area, with heaviest amounts along and south of I-10. The rain would be much welcomed since conditions are quite dry, given the long spell since we've had significant precipitation.
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