Another morning with middle clouds drifting overhead. Heavier cloud to the northeast is debris from evening storms in Cochise county yesterday.
It has now been four months since there was 0.05" or more of rain in the gauge here!
Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending 2:00 am MST this early morning. Only minimal thunderstorm activity over Pima County yesterday. Just a few rainfall reports across the ALERT network, shown below for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning - the 0.20" report northwest of Flowing Wells is erroneous (there's been no rainfall out there for at least three days).
Some changes have occurred during past 24-hours at 500 mb - morning chart above from SPC. The large anticyclone covering the southern 2/3rds of country has three centers of circulation this
morning: one over the Southeast; another over southwest corner of Oklahoma; and one near Yuma, Arizona. We are very near the trough line separating the western two centers, and have light north-northeast winds at this level.
This morning's TWC sounding (below) has a bit more CAPE and PW this morning, and is a bit more favorable for storms at lower elevations. Steering flow for storms remains light, but anvils will spread to the north.
At bottom is the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast of radar echoes, valid at 4:00 pm this afternoon. Heavy anvil spreading overhead, but most of the nighttime runs try to inch storms from Catalinas into far north parts of metro area.
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