Another morning with heavy middle clouds; early morning temperatures holding in low to mid 80s F - with dewpoints in low 50s. Yesterday there were no thunderstorms over the entire southwest half of Arizona - our miserable July continues.
Image at bottom taken during early morning thunderstorm in Las Vegas, Nevada, today.
Visible satellite image from 7:30 am MST this morning shows much of Arizona with middle-level cloud cover.
This morning's sounding from TWC continues much the same as yesterday's - there is a sliver of CAPE above 600 mb today, and some easterly winds around 500 mb - so a glimmer of hope.
However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast indicates another down day here in southeastern Arizona - radar forecast below from 06 UTC WRF-GFS is valid at 5:00 pm today.
Forecast plumes above from 06 UTC GEFS for QPF at airport - the operational GFS is seriously different than the ensemble forecasts. The ensembles hold some hope for light afternoon showers, but the operational forecast (blue) is very wet. Current morning forecast from NWS (below for last half of week) indicates that the forecast office is trending similar to the operational GFS.
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