View above is looking south from Kitt Peak yesterday afternoon at about 4:50 pm MST - looked promising.
Down at bottom is view from Atmo at a bit after 8:00 am this morning, showing the low-hanging smoke from the Bighorn fire.
Plot of detected CGs (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 2:30 am this morning. The active thunderstorms stayed south along the edges of metro area. The airport reported thunder, gusts to 44 mph and 0.06"; DM had thunder, gusts to 40 mph, but only a Trace of rain; here at house we had south gusts 35 to 45 mph and a light shower around 6:00 pm - total in gauge was 0.02". This is significant because it is first rain in gauge since the 0.04" on April 11th. No meaningful rain here since middle of March. Plot below is 24-hour rainfall ending at 8:00 am this morning. There were a couple of sites down toward Sonoita with over an inch.
PW remains high this morning (1.30 inches) and TWC sounding (above) continues to have some CAPE. The WRF runs do not forecast storms because of warm mid-level temperatures and slowly decreasing PW. However, there may well be some storms over the mountains this afternoon.
The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC (above yesterday and below today) illustrate nicely how the models have been jumping around. The chance for rain on night of Fourth (above) has gone totally missing on today's runs.
It now looks like July will be off to a dry start for most of Arizona - second below is the 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for total precipitation through 5:00 pm on July 10th - not pretty.
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