View south from Kitt Peak at a bit after 8:15 am MST this morning shows showers just off to the west. These are part of a line of light, nearly stationary showers that extends from around Florence to Kitt Peak and on into Mexico. Visible image from 7:30 am below shows that this line of showers extends northward all the way into southern Utah.
The morning sounding from TWC (above) remains short of low-level moisture and has essentially no CAPE. Winds below 350 mb are mostly light and variable. Yet another disappointing sounding.
Two forecasts for later today from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS - above is forecast for composite radar echoes valid at 5:00 pm - anvils again over our area. However, winds are forecast to become strong and gusty as outflows from storms to our southwest and northeast converge over the metro area.
While we are in a bit of a PW min area at 6:00 am this morning (below), the WRF forecasts indicate an increase this evening as the outflows move into eastern Pima County.
This morning's forecast from NWS is shown at bottom for Thursday to Saturday - PoPs of 50 to 60 percent indicated for all periods. This is a very strong forecast, since widespread storms one day tend to lead to minimal activity the following day - time will tell, but I certainly hope for the first substantial rainfall here at house by the weekend.
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