Heavy clouds above continued over the Catalinas at about 9:00 am MST this morning, but blue skies were visible out to the west. Visible satellite image below is from 8:30 am - clouds over north Mexico and southeast Arizona, with Tropical Storm Hanna over in the GoM. Hanna may bring much increased PWs into northern Mexico over the weekend.
At 500 mb this morning (above), we continue on the far west edge of the large anticyclone over Oklahoma/Kansas border. A very weak trough extends from southern California southward to the mouth of the GoC. The morning sounding (below) from TWC continues with very high PW, and CAPE that will be present if we get some heating by afternoon. Note that winds continue to be light and variable below 300 mb, with no distinct steering flows.
Forecasts here for composite radar echoes both develop storms over eastern Pima County this afternoon - above is valid at 6:00 pm from the 12 UTC WRF-RR and below is valid at 5:00 pm from the 12 UTC WRF-NAM. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS was suppressed this afternoon, but then developed storms our area around 2:00 am on the 25th.
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