Couple of active spots of the Bighorn fire were visible from campus yesterday afternoon. The fire has burned southeast all the way to Redington Road and remains active this morning. Fire has grown to about 120,000 acres, and is a bit more than 50% contained (this morning's fire map below).
The morning sounding above from TWC is quite stable and has just 16 mm of PW. However, forecast models continue to bring GoC moisture into Arizona later today and tonight. Forecast sounding for TWC (below, from 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR as are WRF forecasts below), indicates a doubling of PW and some CAPE by 4:30 pm MST tomorrow afternoon.
The QPF plumes from 06 UTC GEFS (above for airport) indicate slight chances for storms and rain late tonight. Chances increase for Fourth of July night, although average amount remains quite low.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast is more aggressive wrt convection and rain on the 2nd than is the GEFS and the earlier WRF forecasts from last night. Forecast radar echoes above valid at 6:30 pm tomorrow. Total rainfall forecast below is valid through midnight tomorrow night. (Note color bars for both are below in yesterday's post.)
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