Chances For Storms Improving A Bit

Cumulus over the Catalinas at a bit after 9:00 am MST this morning - perhaps a good sign.

Yesterday afternoon strong storms developed over Santa Cruz County and drifted into parts of Pima County. Composite radar chart above from 4:08 pm yesterday, and plot of detected CG flashes below is for 24-hours ending at 2:00 am this morning. Rain amounts of note with these storms - 0.68" at Amado and 0.41" at Tubac. 

This morning's 500 mb analysis at 12 UTC (above from NCAR RAP) shows the 500 mb anticyclone well-established along the Arizona/New Mexico border. TWC sounding from 12 UTC this morning (below, from SPC) appears a bit favorable for storms - middle-level cooling (more than 3 C at some levels) has weakened the capping inversion some and there is a nice layer of east-southeasterly steering winds from around 600 to 300 mb. However, there seems to be no residual layer from yesterday that is well-mixed in moisture (unusual and perhaps the main negative aspect in the sounding). 

The QPF plumes for TUS from the 06 UTC GEFS (above) indicate slight chances for very light showers at airport through the weekend and then again later next week. The 06 UTC runs of the WRF-GFS model indicate chances for evening/nighttime storms in and near eastern Pima County the next three nights (composite radar forecasts below for 11 pm tonight, and then for 9:00 pm on the 12th at bottom. Hoping the weekend brings some rain in my gauge and a start up here of the summer thunderstorm season!