Three-hour rain amounts ending at 10:30 am MST for north half of ALERT area. Very heavy rain and thunder here last 45 minutes or so, still moderate rain and I can't go out to read gauge.
Very heavy thunderstorm above is just to the east of the house at this time. Earlier storm drifted off Catalinas and there was a brief shower, with thunder rumbling, here that left 0.15" in the gauge - biggest rain event here since March 18th!
The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch (below) that is in effect until midnight tomorrow night.
Significant storms cover much of southeast Arizona at this time (radar chart above from 7:30 am MST). Plot of detected CG flashes (below, from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 7:30 - whites and pinks are flashes in past couple of hours. ALERT rain amounts ending at same time (second below) indicate several sites in Catalinas with amounts around an inch.
The 500 mb chart above (from University of Wyoming weather page) shows that we remain on the far west side of the large anticyclone centered over Oklahoma, while trough to west inched across much of Arizona. Note - I used the Wyoming 500 mb because those from NCAR RAP and NWS EMC were affected negatively by suspect heights at Chihuahua, Mexico, and Phoenix.
The morning TWC sounding (below) is very wet (1.77" PW) and with considerable CAPE. There are some clear skies out west, but it is not obvious whether any of that will inch eastward.
Great to find some rain in the gauge, after more than four months of local drought.
Two tropical systems of interest: above shows NHC morning forecast for current depression in the GoM with system expected to become a TS and head into south Texas and northern Mexico; below shows current forecast for Cat 3 hurricane Douglas as it heads westward toward Hawaii.
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