View from Atmo this morning shows smoke from the Bighorn fire continuing to hang over the eastern Catalinas. Fire is now 75 percent contained, as firefighters do mop-up work - sadly, a huge portion of the Catalinas have been burned over during this disaster.
We are now almost through the first week of July and I'm wondering when there will be some meaningful rain in my gauge (by meaningful I mean around a quarter of an inch or more).
This morning's TWC sounding plot (above) has about an inch of PW, but only a tiny wedge of CAPE around 500 mb, as strong inversion just above shuts off likelihood of deep convection. Yesterday there were not even buildups over the mountains, as I had thought there might be.
Looked at the 06 UTC GEFS plumes this morning for the week ahead. Above are the plumes for T and PW. Temperatures trend upward during the week, while PW falls briefly and then holds near an inch for rest of week.
Plumes below are for CAPE and QPF at the airport. CAPE is forecast to be minimal, except by the operational GFS (blue). Outlook for QPF (rain) is also dismal - except late from the GFS (blue). Something seems awry in the GFS run, since it is a serious outlier, for some parameters, wrt the ensemble members.
Below is the 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for precipitation through 5:00 m MST on July 12th.
Certainly looks like a late start for the summer thunderstorm season here in the metro area.
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