Dry July Drags On

Heavy middle cloud overcast this morning is providing a little relief from the series of of very warm early mornings. However, it was still 83 F at 6:00 am MST this morning.

Southeast Arizona was almost totally suppressed yesterday, as per plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala - below) though 2:00 am this morning. There were few reports of precipitation in southeast Arizona, about 10 reports that I could find, and all were less than 0.05", except for a report of 0.30 " at Bisbee.

Visible satellite image this morning at about 7:30 am shows band of cloudiness curving all the way from northwest Arizona to south end of GoC. Radar indicates there may be some light sprinkles over Arizona.

Header graphic at the NWS this morning (below) is for "Southeast Arizona" and is slightly different than point forecast for airport.

This morning the TWC sounding remains essentially without CAPE, and the 500 mb analysis continues weak and unorganized for the Southwest, although a weak anticyclone is present somewhere near the Four Corners. The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC this morning (above) do hold out some hope for the coming week, especially after Thursday. In the short term PW decreases - forecast below from 06 UTC WRF-GFS is valid at 5:00 am on Tuesday morning. 

Coming week looks like a mixed bag that will hopefully bring storms and rain late.