Middle and higher clouds overhead this morning at a bit after 9:00 am MST.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (above, from SPC) is more than a bit chaotic. The anticyclone center has shifted far to the east over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Winds at 500 are light and variable over Sonora and Arizona. The 12 UTC sounding from TWC (below) is also not very impressive - certainly not as good for storms as what I'd expected yesterday. There is only a sliver of CAPE and winds are light and variable up through 300 mb. Storms that do develop could have potential for local heavy rains.
Forecast from 06 UTC WRF-GFS (above) is for radar echoes at 6:00 pm this afternoon - Mostly debris cloud over city again, with some strong storms along north border of eastern Pima County - again, a forecast that is less than what I'd expected yesterday.
Forecast below is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR and is for precipitation through midnight tonight. That run forecasts little precipitation over eastern Pima County, and hints at another donut hole over the city.
So, it goes day-to-day in the summer thunderstorm season, which has been real dud so far.
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