View north from Kitt Peak at a bit after 10:00 am MST is looking right into center of the MCV (mentioned in previous post). Satellite view at 10:10 am below also shows the MCV - this feature is moving northward.
Could not find any decent 500 mb analyses this morning - so am showing the plot of the 12 UTC data above. It appears to me that the center of the anticyclone has shifted into southeastern New Mexico and may be located between El Paso and Midland, Texas. Morning analyses have been corrupted by two bad soundings: The Chihuahua height is about 30 m too low (as per continuing problems there); and the height at Norman, Oklahoma, is so bizarrely bad that their data should never have been transmitted.
Here are yesterday and today morning soundings for TWC. Levels above 500 mb are more moist today, but CAPE has decreased significantly. Steering winds have become light south to southwest today, compared to yesterday's nice layer of easterlies. Hard to forecast what our morning sounding might look like by evening - difficult feature is layer from 700 to 500 mb, which is fairly unstable. Perhaps interaction with higher elevations will lead to mountain storms.
It's a hard call, and the WRF runs since midnight are indicating that eastern Pima County will likely be totally suppressed this evening and tonight (at bottom is 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast of rainfall through 5:00 am tomorrow morning).
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