Bright skies over the Catalinas this morning, but with some bubbling cumulus already happening.
The outflows mentioned yesterday did impact the metro area with winds (gusts to 32 mph at TUS and gusts to 37 mph at DM AFB), but they also triggered some light showers over parts of the city.
The plot of detected CG flashes (below, from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am MST this morning. There were some flashes in eastern Pima County but most thunderstorm activity was to the west and south in Mexico. We may had a rumble of thunder here, but if so it was from an in cloud flash.
For comparison here are rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am from MesoWest above and from the ALERT network below. ALERT sites captured more sires with around a quarter of an inch east of downtown. Here at the house we had sprinkles around 8:00 pm but with only a Trace. This is the only year in my records here when there has been so little July rainfall through the 21st (still at 0.03").
This morning's TWC sounding below has nearly an inch and a half of PW following a northward push of low-level moisture from the GoC yesterday. However, there still is only a small amount of CAPE for the mixed BL. Again, there are virtually no steering winds, but strong southwest winds above 350 mb to bring anvils our way.
Just looked at two 12 UTC WRF forecasts. The RR version forecasts showers and thunderstorms over metro area after dark this evening. The NAM version forecasts a huge area of afternoon and evening anvil over eastern Pima County, followed by light showers before sunrise.
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