Hot And Hotter

Clear skies this morning, but with smoke and haze from the Bighorn fire continuing over right side of image.

Forecast from NWS this morning (above and below) is quite depressing. Hot and hotter days through Sunday - highs forecast for next seven days range 106 to 114 F - with near or record highs possible on a couple of those days.

The GEFS plumes above are hot, but they also have a 5 to 10 F cool bias. The morning TWC sounding below continues with over an inch of PW, but the WARM capping temperatures of -4 C in layer centered around 500 mb are very nasty and preclude deep convection.

The typical summer anticyclone at 500 mb is well-established (above forecast from 06 UTC GFS is valid at noon on July 12th) over the Southwest. However, pattern means mainly hot until moisture and CAPE improve dramatically. Forecast of total precipitation from the same run (below) is valid for rainfall through midnight on the 14th. Quick look at my records indicates this will latest start for summer rains since 2010.

Finally, TS Cristina developed Monday night and is forecast (bottom) to become a hurricane and to move west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.