Friday, July 02, 2021

Better Chances For Showers

Very nice sunrise colors this morning over the eastern Catalinas.

Photo above, from Angel Otarola, of the large storm that moved off the west end of the Catalinas. Although POPs were 50 to 60 % yesterday, the lower elevations were almost completely suppressed. The heavy cloud cover persisted through the day and winds aloft were light and variable. 

ALERT reports (below) show rainfall on the Catalinas and three reports over half an inch in the Oro Valley area. Plot of detected CG flashes (second below) for 24 hours ending a bit after 1:00 am MST this morning. There was limited activity around the edges of eastern Pima County, and only a couple of flashes from the storm shown above.

Map of TPW (above) for 6:00 am this morning shows very high values have pushed into southwestern Arizona. This morning's sounding for TWC (aka TUS - below) is very moist with PW of 45.7 mm (about 1.80 inches). CAPE is much higher than yesterday.

So main question is whether there will be enough lifting to initiate storms. The heavy cloud cover remains in place (satellite image at bottom) and winds continue light. There are however two very weak inverted troughs (ITs) that will move westward along the Borderlands, perhaps helping a bit.

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