View of perfectly clear skies and Baboquivari at bit after 7:00 am MST this morning, looking south from Kitt Peak. Down at bottom is view looking west along I-40 near Winslow, with plenty of semis as well as a BNSF train - the San Francisco Peaks are barely visible, far in distance, on right side of image.
Yesterday was very suppressed over almost all of Arizona except the Rim Country and White Mountains (detected CG flshes above from Atmo and Vaisala). I had thought that the Catalinas might trigger a storm or two that would head west, but it was not to be. Note the lonely storm out in far western Pima County.
Plot of TPW at 7:00 am this morning (above) shows values above 2 inches to our west and decreasing to east into New Mexico.
This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows the anticyclone centered near the Four Corners, with fairly strong 30 to 40 kt winds around its periphery. The morning sounding (below) continues pretty ugly with at least three old boundary layers indicated in the temperature trace. There is CAPE, if BL mixes out to above 700 mb and moisture holds steady or increases. Tough call, but probably better chances today than yesterday, given the increase in PW of nearly a third of an inch.
Below is current NWS forecast for today through next Tuesday, with POPs of 20 to 50% for the airport each evening. With a pattern like this, high POPs and significant storm coverage is most likely when an inverted trough moves along the Borderlands - such a feature was not showing up strongly in last night's WRF forecasts - so this will be something to watch for in today's model forecasts.
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