Monday, July 26, 2021

Was A Very Wet Week

Mostly clear skies this morning after several cloudy, dreary days. Visible image (below from 7:26 am MST) shows storms have moved to far western Arizona and southern California. Las Vegas had flooding during the early morning hours, and flood watches and warnings are out for much of southern California.

Here are the ALERT totals for the past week (going back to the 19th). Looks like one suspect station north of Oro Valley, but what amounts for just 7 days! I count ten sites with over 5 inches of rain - here at house we had 3.04".

Above analysis is for 300 mb and shows winds, streamlines, and divergence (yellow shades). Cyclones are mostly south of 30 degrees N, with anticyclones dominating from the Southeast to the Northwest and over Mexico. The upper-level anticyclone is forecast to strengthen markedly during the next couple of days.

This morning's skewT plot for TUS/TWC (above) continues quite moist, although some drying is expected today, and CAPE will be very limited over all of Arizona this afternoon. Below is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for total precipitation through 5:00 am tomorrow morning - a real dry out after all this rain will actually be a nice change.

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