Monday, July 19, 2021

Rainy Week

View of the Rillito about 6:00 am MST this morning - gauge at Dodge indicated that flow exceeded 5,000 CFS early this morning. Most flow I've seen in the wash in many months.

Plot of CG flashes detected (above - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for period ending a bit after 1:00 am this early morning. We had 0.47" here at house yesterday - most in morning around sunrise and then a bit more after dark.

Decided it would be interesting to show ALERT data for past 7 days, ending at 8:00 am this morning - quite a wet week for the greater metro area and surrounds. There are several sites with around 4 inches for the week!

This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows that center of western anticyclone, which is very elongated north to south, has shifted into Wyoming. Tucson's wind direction is out of sync with rest of observations, for some reason. IR image below is from 15 UTC and shows large MCS moving out over central GoC, leaving much of eastern portion of Arizona in the clear. Models suggest possibility of more early nighttime/morning showers in our area.

At bottom is GFS forecast for total precipitation during coming 7 days, ending at 5:00 pm on Monday the 26th - continued very wet for Arizona and western Mexico.

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