Bit of color at sunrise after a night with widespread heavy rains across the metro area.
Radar above from just after midnight shows heavy storms that were moving across the metro area. Plot of CG flashes (below for 24 hours ending at 7:03 am MST - from Atmo and Vaisala) shows eastern Pima County nearly covered by the flashes.
Rain amounts across the ALERT network were very high, with more than half the sites reporting more than an inch of precipitation. A site on the west end of the Catalinas reported over 4 inches, and there were many sites with more than 2.50". Here at the house we had only 1.17".
At 500 mb this morning things are a bit chopped up because of the storms. The weak cyclone is now centered in west Texas, with quite cold temperatures in its southern portions. Models forecast the low center to be nearly over Tucson by Sunday morning. The west wind at Tucson is due to a mescoscale convective vortex (MCV) left behind by the storm complex. Visible satellite image below is from 1501 UTC this morning.
The TWC/TUS morning sounding (above) shows a classic onion shape (as per Zipser, Mon. Wea. Rev. 1977). This sounding has no CAPE and a strange wind profile because of the convective modifications. I would expect that today will be suppressed, as is typical, because of the widespread rains and wet surface conditions keeping heating down. However, the morning forecast from NWS (below) continues with very high POPs for each period through Sunday.
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