Evening showers over parts of the metro last evening - above. But clear skies this morning - below.
The showers yesterday fell over the eastern and southern parts of the ALERT network - above and below. We only had 0.02" here a bit before dark. I count only 7 sites with half an inch or more precipitation. Satellite view (second below) shows that we're starting the day with mostly clear conditions over southeast Arizona.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24 huors ending at 1:03 am MST this morning (above from Atmo and Visala) shows a donut hole centered on Tucson where there were few flashes.
This morning's TWC/TUS upper-air sounding data (skewT plot below) continues with fair amount of CAPE and high PW, although the drier low levels are a possible problem, as today's BL will need a lot of heating to build up to 700 mb. Winds continue light and variable, with no real steering flow - so terrain and outflows will be dominate forcing.
Above plot shows 300 mb data, winds, and streamlines. The position of the anticyclone in the upper portion of troposphe has shifted to be over New Mexico. Note that a fairly distinct short wave will brush across the southern part of Arizona today. The 06 UTC GFS forecast for rainfall amounts through 5:00 am Monday is shown below. Good chances for showers across most of state, with highest amounts forecast for the White Mountains and Rim Country.
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