Saturday, July 24, 2021

Damp And Dreary Morning

View toward Catalinas from campus at 7:00 am MST this morning, Below is visible satellite image from 1430 UTC (7:30 am) showing large swirl of cloudiness within southwest sector of closed low.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24 hours through 7:00 am - from Atmo and Visala) indicates no thunderstorms over southern Arizona since yesterday afternoon. Widespread rain across the metro area (below, from MesoWest for 24 hours through 7:55 am), with some amounts reaching just over an inch.

I have not ventured out to gauge yet, as rain here continues - will fill in amount later this morning.

Still raining lightly at noon - amount now in gauge 0.54".

At 500 mb (above) the large cyclone is centered between Tucson and Albuquerque. Low is forecast to move slowly toward the southwest and cross over the Tucson area. The morning TWC/TUS upper-air sounding (below) is nearly saturated through the troposphere, with northeast to northerly winds. While the SPC analysis indicates CAPE, it is an over-estimate and what CAPE there is is just a sliver.

Radar (second tilt - 1.3 degrees elevation) above is from 7:47 am, and it indicates a considerable area of echo extending from Cochise and Pima Counties, reaching almost to Phoenix.

Below is 06 UTC GFS forecast for total rainfall from today through the end of the month - so we will end up having very wet totals for July.

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