Sunday, July 04, 2021

Unsettled Holiday Weekend Continues

Sunrise colors this morning, along with a bit of stratus hanging along the foothills. View at bottom, from 9:30 am MST, shows building towers at this early hour.

Widespread thunderstorms yesterday afternoon continued well into the night, and 24-hour CG flash plot (above from Atmo and Vaisala) shows both extensive activity and a nearly perfect donut hole centered along the border in southern Cochise County.

ALERT network rainfall for 24 hours ending at 9:00 am this morning (above and below), Areal coverage was nearly 100 percent, but with amounts ranging from less than 0.04" to nearly 2.00". We were on the light side here with a total of only 0.18". There was probably some thunder also, but I did not hear it.

Visible satellite image (above from 9:41 am) shows considerable development already occurring over southeast Arizona.

The 500 mb analysis (12 UTC above) shows that the 500 mb anticyclone is centered near the Four Corners. The inverted trough that was to our east yesterday appears to have decayed; however, observations were completely missing over Mexico.

The morning upper-air sounding from TUS/TWC below shows an extremely moist atmosphere (1.99" PW), considerable CAPE, and no capping inversions. Is it too moist to rain, as Mike Leuthold sometimes asks? 

Steering winds are from the northeast, but quite light. Will this be the third consecutive day with measurable rain here at the house? - certainly looks very promising.

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