Flash Flood Watch Through Saturday

Atmo webcam captures a UFO at about 7:00 am MST this morning!

Thunderstorms mostly avoided the greater metro area yesterday, as per plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 1:13 am this morning. However, many sites in the ALERT area (below) measured rain from showers - although heaviest amounts were down in the southwest corner of the network, where there were thunderstorms.

At 500 mb this morning (above from SPC) anticyclone continues to be centered somewhere near the Four Corners. There is a weak, elongated cyclone centered near Abilene, Texas. This feature is forecast to move slowly westward, and be nearly overhead Tucson by Sunday morning.

The 12 UTC TWC/TUS sounding plot below continues to have substantial, low-level CAPE. Wind speeds are light below 500 mb and anvils would be moving out to west of any storm cores - i.e., a potentially negative factor for storms over the metro area. The observed PW this morning is 34 mm, but the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts PW to have risen to 44 mm by 11:00 pm tonight.

Above shows current morning forecast from NWS, with probabilities for measurable rain at the airport.

Finally (below, also from 06 UTC WRF-GFS is forecast for accumulated rainfall through 5:00 am tomorrow morning - the 3.3 inches is one of the highest amounts that I can remember for the airport. Amounts are not nearly as high on the two 12 UTC WRF runs I looked at.

All-in-all, an interesting few days on tap.