Thursday, July 29, 2021

Chances For Showers Improving Slowly

Heavy clouds over the mountains a bit before sunrise this morning. At bottom, east view from San Simon, Arizona, at 6:10 am MST.

Plot of detected CG flashes yesterday (above from Atmo and Vaisala for 24 hours ending at 8:03 UTC) shows thunderstorm activity avoided Pima County and concentrated over Cochise County. There were reports of rain amounts in Cochise County (from MesoWest), and I note one report at south end of Huachuca mountains of over an inch.

This morning's TWC/TUS sounding has increased PW (1.40"), but moisture profile below 700 mb remains poor, with Td decreasing with height. There is a sliver of CAPE, however, above 700 mb. Still not a sounding I can get excited about, but a bit better than yesterday morning.

GFS 250 mb forecast (from 06 UTC runs - below, valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon) shows the upper-tropospheric cyclone heading in our general direction, but with most of US covered by a strong anticyclone.

Finally, two forecasts from the WRF-GFS 06 UTC runs at Atmo - above is radar valid at 5:00 pm, showing a few echoes over eastern Pima County; below is total precipitation forecast through midnight tonight, with some light amounts over parts of metro area.

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