Friday, July 16, 2021

Early Morning Activity Again

Morning towers to north of Catalinas at 8:15 am MST. Down at bottom is 7:20 am view along I-10 eastbound at San Simon.

Yesterdays ALERT rainfall totals for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (north sector above and south below). The showers and storms basically cut across the center portion of metro area from northeast to southwest. Total here was 0.25 inches; at Atmo 0.18"; at airport 0.04"; and at DM a Trace.

Some early morning storms to the northwest of here - plot of detected CGs (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 7:30 am this morning is above. The dark blues were yesterday morning's storms.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis this morning (above from NCAR RAP) shows very weak weak winds around the anticyclone, which is centered between Phoenix and Albuquerque. There is an inverted trough (IT) curving from eastern New Mexico across the corner of Arizona/New Mexico and into Sonora - this feature is very weak wrt forcing vertical motion, but it will be in play today.

The sounding plot for TUS/TWC (below from SPC) now shows light and variable winds through the entire troposphere, with abundant potential CAPE and 1.93" of PW. Heating will get storms going and they should move slowly, tending toward south to southwest. There is widespread residual cloudiness that is starting to show some breaks - so, degree of heating remains the main uncertainty of the day.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) are quite impressive, and are reflected in the NWS morning forecast through the weekend - below. Note that the Flash Flood Watch has been continued through today.

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