Saturday, July 10, 2021

Storms In Metro This Evening?

Pre-sunrise colors early this morning above. Building towers over the Catalinas at about 5:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon - image at bottom.

Plot above (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows detected CG flashes for 24 hours ending at about 1:00 am this morning. Most of southeast Arizona was storm free, except for an intense thunderstorm that moved west along the borderlands. There was one severe wind report from this storm (radar image below), but it moved across extremely desolate country.

The 500 mb analysis this morning above shows Las Vegas with a very high height of 6000 m. There seems to be a hint of a weak inverted trough (IT) near El Paso. The GFS forecast (below - valid at 06z tonight) shows a distinct IT nearly overhead. Some of the enhancement is due to convective feedback from forecasted thunderstorms.

This morning's TUS/TWC upper-air sounding (above) continues to have strong east-northeasterly steering flow. Upper flow is northerly, which combined with the cell motion, will result in anvils trailing off to south and east of thunderstorms.

Current TUS forecast for the airport includes a 60% chance of storms with measurable rainfall during the night tonight.

The SPC morning outlook (below) highlights a slight chance of severe thunderstorms, following a fair number of severe winds and damage reports around Phoenix metro area yesterday.

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