Friday, September 27, 2019

Closed Low At 500 mb Dragging Its Feet


View from Atmo at about 6:45 am MST this morning, showing buildups growing above the lower clouds. Radar below (from a bit before 7:00 am) shows that storms have developed over western part of Catalinas and to northwest toward Casa Grande. Sprinkles here at house this morning.



Last night from about 10:00 pm to 1:00 am an area of light showers developed and moved across parts of metro. ALERT 24-hour rainfall (above) is through about 7:00 am this morning (there were two reports of 0.04" in southern part of network - not shown). Here at house a locally heavy shower (no thunder) hit about 10:30 pm and left 0.28" in the gauge - a nice surprise. Plot of detected CGs (below from Atmo and Vaisala for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am this morning) shows limited thunderstorm activity yesterday - most active region being far to our west.



This mornings sounding is shown above, with 500 mb chart below (both from SPC). Sounding continues moist and unstable, so current  early showers fit. The 500 mb chart shows that the trough (which had been forecast yesterday to move across Arizona yesterday afternoon and evening) still remains to our west. So a bit of a bust from most forecast models regarding how fast this feature would kick eastward. Feature actually appeared to loop westward, doing a circle, late yesterday - quite something to watch in the water vapor images.


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