View above is of Catalinas and storms yesterday at 4:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon. At bottom is view of clouds south of Kitt Peak at a Bit after 6:00 am this morning.
Plot of CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at midnight last night. Only a few thunderstorms in southeast Arizona yesterday, mainly over higher elevations.
Plot of PW at TWC below is for past two days ending a bit before 12 UTC this morning. The PW has held steady since the ramp up on Thursday night.
The large 500 mb anticyclone (above, from SPC) continues but has been nudged eastward by approaching shortwave in the westerlies. There is a weak anticyclonic circulation center near the Four Corners, with the main center now over eastern Oklahoma. Note the weak shortwave over the lower Colorado River Basin - this will be pushed eastward across Arizona today as main shortwave
approaches California.
This morning's upper-air sounding plot for TWC (above, also from SPC) shows continued high PW and substantial CAPE. Steering flow becomes more westerly during the day.
Forecast below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo) indicates considerable thunderstorm activity over the Metro area at 6:30 pm this evening. Some rain would be nice, since it's been dry here following the 0.10" on the 1st of September.
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