Kitt Peak north (above) just before sunrise today. Bottom is pre-dawn view of Kingman, Arizona. The low temperature here this morning was a pleasantly cool 67 F.
Yesterday was storm-free across Arizona, except for one morning storm in White Mountains (detected CG flashes above, from Atmo and Vaisala for 24-hours ending 12 UTC this morning).
The TWC morning sounding (above from SPC) has PW of about one inch and no CAPE. Winds are light and variable below 300 mb.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (from SPC with troughs added in blue) is quite a mess with major trough moving into Plains and several shortwaves/inverted troughs from northern Mexico east to Florida.
At 500mb the forecast above (06 UTC WRF-GFS from Atmo) valid at 8:00 pm MST tomorrow shows a weak, cutoff low over Cochise County. This feature develops over northeast Sonora and moves slowly northward. The PW increases from east tomorrow and brings increasing chances for thunderstorms southeast Arizona late tomorrow through the weekend.
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