South view from Kitt Peak (above) shows some lingering low clouds this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at midnight last night. Much of Arizona was totally suppressed yesterday. The II satellite image below is from 5:30 am MST this morning - shows some low clouds lingering over parts of eastern Arizona.
The MIMIC TPW analysis above (for 12 UTC today) indicates deeper moisture retreating southward, with a bit of values around an inch or bit more still holding across southern third of Arizona.
The 12 UTC 500 mb chart (above from SPC) shows the western 500 mb trough has pushed the anticyclone far south and east, with circulation centers over the Southeast and central west coast of Mexico. The morning TWC upper-air sounding (also from SPC - below) continues with moist low-levels but the potential CAPE is a bit deceiving, since the warm air aloft from 600 to 500 mb is apparently keeping a cap on deep convection (note above the -4 and -5 C temps affecting us in southern Arizona).
The 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS forecasts (at bottom) of radar echoes at 5:30 pm this afternoon indicate another day devoid of thunderstorms, with perhaps some popcorn sprinkles around eastern Pima County.
Things have certainly gone downhill since Sunday morning here!
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