Heavy clouds again this morning. Catalinas above from campus. Visible satellite image below (for 6:45 am MST this morning) shows the cloud cover affecting much of Arizona. Second below shows Kitt Peak in the clouds this morning.
This morning's 12 UTC sounding from TWC (above) shows sounding very similar to yesterday's with moisture hanging on and considerable CAPE; main difference is the low-level southerly winds this morning. The only early morning storms occurred up in Rim Country, with no nocturnal MCS.
Plot of CG flashes (below, for 24-hours ending at midnight last night, from Atmo and Vaisala) shows Pima County almost totally suppressed yesterday, with most thunderstorm activity over in Cochise County.
The 500 mb pattern (12 UTC above) continues to be dominated by the western trough. Not a summer monsoon pattern at all - the summer pattern seems to have ended on September 8th. The GEFS mean 500 mb forecast chart for midnight on the 17th (below) shows that westerlies continue to prevail over Arizona and northern Mexico.
Looks like we now have to hope for some transition storms, as westerlies interact with residual moisture from GoC.
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