View yesterday afternoon of storms along the foothills. Looked very much like rain here, but alas all we got was strong outflow winds of about 40 mph and wonderful smell of rain.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at midnight last night from Atmo and Vaisala) shows limited thunderstorm activity across all of southwestern third of Arizona.
ALERT below (for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning) shows spotty rainfalls over parts of network, with only one station near Vail reporting more than half an inch. To the south only one site had rain - Florida Canyon with 0.16". Note that values less than 0.04 are not shown on ALERT plots.
The chart above (250 mb plot with streamlines) shows the large anticyclone has two circulation centers this morning - one near the Texas coast and the other between Phoenix and Flagstaff. The is a deformation zone between the centers. Time series below for TWC shows PW decreasing slowly during past week. The TWC sounding this morning is down to 1.17" PW and only a sliver of afternoon CAPE.
The 06 UTC plumes for QPF show the airport dry until late in the weekend. Forecast below (06 UTC WRF-GFS on 5.4 km grid) shows a dismal outlook for Arizona and northwestern Mexico through next Saturday morning at 10.00 am.
Rest of week looks hot and dry. During the past seven days the airport max temperature has exceeded 100 F every day, except the high of 97 F on the 29th of August. Anxiously awaiting a cool breeze.
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