I had the figures here ready to go at 7:00 am MST, but continuing internet troubles here have delayed me. View above from Jim Wyant's webcam at 6:30 am.
The early morning forecast from NWS (above) indicates a chance of thunderstorms every day from now through next Tuesday.
There was a large MCS last night (IR image above from 11:00 PM last evening) just east of the central GoC - and an even larger one north of Cabo Corrientes.
At 500 mb this morning a weak IT persists northern Mexico/New Mexico bootheel. This feature still forecast to become weak cutoff low and move northward.
The morning sounding from TWC (above) is very stable with PW of only 0.83" and no CAPE. The seven day time-series of PW on campus (below) shows PW decreasing steadily during past five days.
However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast above (TWC sounding valid at 2:00 PM this afternoon) indicates very substantial changes by afternoon - PW is 1.42" in the sounding, and CAPE is around 1,000 J/Kg. The switch to easterly winds below 600 mb apparently brings the increased moisture in from the east. This leads to a forecast (below from same WRF run) of considerable thunderstorm activity over eastern Pima County by 3:00 pm this afternoon. Will watch to see what happens.
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