Lorena has fallen apart before coming ashore. The storms and rainfall associated with her are shearing off to the northeast across Sonora.
This morning's NWS forecast for TUS (above) indicates some chance of storms through Tuesday, with most likely chances on Monday night.
The longer term 500 mb forecast (below, from 00 UTC GFS) is valid at 12 UTC on the 24th, with a deep closed low over southwestern Arizona. Note that this particular forecast only shows winds forecast to be 30 kts or greater.
The 06 UTC WRF runs from Atmo are interesting. The GFS version forecasts only some popcorn showers over eastern Pima County this afternoon. However, the NAM version forecasts storms this afternoon to south and east, and then forecasts storm thunderstorms approaching metro area at 7:00 am tomorrow morning (below). Very different forecasts from the WRF versions - time will tell.
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