Once again southern Arizona had almost no thunderstorms yesterday! Plot of CG flashes above from Atmo and Vaisala. Most storm activity was over in southwestern corner of New Mexico. Only rain here in the metro area was the early morning showers, reported in the previous post.
This morning's TWC sounding (above, from SPC) shows PW down to 1.16", but with considerable CAPE. Winds are light and variable below 600 mb and southwesterly above. The southwesterly winds aloft are ahead of a deep, 500 mb short wave along the West coast (below, also from SPC). Yesterday's closed low has opened up and shifted north into Colorado and Four Corners region.
The IR image above for 6:00 am MST shows cloud band over southwestern Arizona and northern Baja, ahead of the short wave.
The MIMIC TPW analysis for 12 UTC this morning (above) indicates high PW continuing over southwest Arizona. The two distinct circulations are with Kiko (Cat 3 now, after reaching Cat 4 yesterday) over the Pacific, and Hurricane Humberto (Cat 1) east of Florida. The NHC 5-day outlook from NHC (below) indicates a very active week for the eastern Pacific.
Finally, at bottom, is the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo of composite radar echoes valid at 4:00 pm this afternoon. The strong storms over central Pima County appear to be sending their anvils toward the metro area, which is not good for thunderstorm chances locally.
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