Heavy clouds hanging on the Catalinas this morning - above. At bottom is stratus flowing over Kitt Peak. Added Note - see some of david Blanchards summer photographs at his blog site; link to right.
ALERT 24-hour rainfall ending at 6:45 am MST this morning. Except for rains over and northwest of Catalinas, amounts reflect the morning showers at low elevations. Note the 2.91 inches report from Mt. Lemmon; however the nearby RAWS site reported less than half an inch.
During night storm developed over Catalinas and Art Rangno and Bill Cotton reported thunder and rain around Catalina before midnight. Cotton's rainfall trace (above) shows about 0.35" during the night. Plot of CG flashes (below - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending about 30 minutes after midnight. Purples and whites indicate flashes a couple of hours earlier and cover the Catalinas.
This morning's 500 mb chart (above from SPC) shows the two troughs dominating the West - situation over Mexico and Texas appears chaotic and ill-defined. The MIMIC TPW (below, appears to show very dry air south and west of here.
The 12 UTC morning sounding from TWC indicates 1.34" of PW, mostly in low-levels - which are quite unstable Don't know if sounding will stay this good for thunderstorms, but steering winds remain poor, since there is little orography to force storm development to our west. Best way to monitor storm potential is to watch TWC PW time-series at Atmo page.
Morning WRF forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms over our area during late afternoon. The forecast soundings, if they verify, indicate potential for nighttime MCS. Another interesting weather-watch day.
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