High-based storms over Catalinas at 6:00 pm MST yesterday. Today is the start of meteorological fall and hopefully a wet September.
Plot of CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 7:oo am this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala). Some activity from Redington Pass into metro area, but most storms stayed to south. There are some early morning storms (purple to white) to north and northwest.
Rainfall for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) shows spotty, light rain reports from Redington Pass into City and also at southern-most sites. Max rain only 0.39" at Florida Canyon.
This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows anticyclone now distinct near Four Corners with cooler temperatures of -7 to -8 C over New Mexico and Arizona. The TWC sounding plot (below for 12 UTC) shows fairly strong easterly steering flow with decent CAPE. Warm air capping at mid-levels not present, as it was last several days.
Early morning WRF forecasts indicate isolated thunderstorms metro area this afternoon, with stronger storms to west of here. The severe storm outlook this morning (below from SPC) includes the metro area within a slight chance of severe today. Not quite sure why it includes TUS, and appears to be stretched a bit too far east and north. Time will tell.
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