Storms Again By Weekend?

Looks like a slow start this morning at Jackson Hole golf course, as they've had frost during the night.

The very active tropics may be the key as to whether high PW will return for the weekend. We are in a pattern of continued 500 mb troughiness over the West, and our summer monsoon pattern is long gone. The 1230 UTC IR satellite image (above shows Kiko, Lorena, and Mario over the eastern Pacific. Up at northeast edge of image the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda are bringing heavy rains to southeast Texas.

The eastern Pacific is very active with three tropical storms this morning (above). The current forecast track for Lorena (below, from NHC) brings a hurricane toward the south end of Baja by early Saturday morning. A storm following this track would trigger a strong surge of low-level moisture north up the GoC.

At bottom is forecast from 06 UTC WRF-GFS of PW valid at 11:00 am MST next Saturday. Even though the model forecast has Lorena's position west of that forecast by NHC, high PW is approaching southern Arizona. If the NHC forecast track of Lorena were to prove accurate, I'd expect a surge of low-level moisture to impact Arizona by as early as Saturday morning. 

Look like we'll have some weather of interest by the weekend.