View from Jim Wyant's webcam on campus at 6:45 am MST this morning. Finger Rock is in far distance just east of Palm tree. Middle clouds are drifting around this morning.
The IR image above (from 4:30 pm yesterday afternoon) shows an early MCS in Mexico and Hurricane Juliette.
MIMIC PW analysis for 5:00 am today (above) shows increases over southern Arizona that were helped to some degree by the Mexican MCS. Values have reached into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range. Hurricanes Dorian and Juliette are both now Cat. 1 storms.
Seven day time-series of PW on campus (below) shows the strong increase (as predicted by WRF forecasts yesterday - see previous post) during past 24-hours.
The morning upper-air sounding from TWC (below) shows almost no nighttime cooling with surface-based BL still in place. Sounding has PW of 1.62", with some CAPE for low-elevations. The wind profile below 250 mb is a mess, with light and variable winds and no clear steering winds. Storms on mountains will tend to stay there unless outflows push into low-elevations.
Chances for storms increase this weekend as a 500 mb trough over Great Basin interacts with the subtropical moisture over southern Arizona.
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