Hurricane Lorna is moving more to the north than was earlier forecast by the NHC. The hurricane appears to be entering into the southern GoC as indicated by the water vapor image above from 2:45 pm MST this afternoon.
The latest forecast from NHC (above) has shifted the track eastward and keeps the storm along the GoC coast of Baja and then over the Baja spine. The NHC has also stated that the track is now very uncertain and may even shift more eastward, with the storm staying over the waters of the GoC.
The impacts of this shift wrt the speed at which high PW air enters Arizona are a bit more uncertain now. The surface pressure gradient is now pointed down the GoC toward the hurricane. But, the 1:00 pm TWP analysis (below) shows that values of over 1.50 inches have now reached northward almost to 30 degrees north. So situation is somewhat uncertain and the timing of higher PW in southern Arizona may be delayed - close watch needed.
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