North view from Kitt Peak this morning (above, at a bit before 6:30 am MST) shows some middle-level buildups off to north-northeast.
Plot of CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 12-hours ending at 06 UTC last night. There were a couple of stray flashes in Cochise County, but more intense thunderstorm activity south in Mexico and especially with Hurricane Lorna and old TS Imelda (which is producing considerable flooding in southeast Texas).
TPW from MIMIC above is at 11 UTC this morning. Moisture swirls (from southwest to northeast) are associated with TS Mario, Hurricane Lorna, and remnants of Imelda.
This morning's TWC upper-air sounding (above) shows about 1 inch of PW, sliver of CAPE, very deep old BL, south-southwest steering winds. Enough CAPE for some thunderstorms today at higher elevations.
The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of PW (below, on 5.4 km grid) is valid at 11:00 am on Sunday the 22nd. By this time the model forecasts Lorna to be west of Cabo San Lucas, with higher PW beginning to intrude into Arizona. However, I think the forecast is slow - once Lorna moves toward southwest of end of Baja, the moisture should return rapidly up GoC. I'd expect substantial PW increases beginning during day on Saturday.
This would bring us a potentially stormy weekend.
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