Another day gone with no rain in the gauge. View of Catalinas at 6:00 pm MST yesterday shows a bit of virga over the mountains. The plot below of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 12-hours ending at 9:30 pm last night. Couple of lonely flashes in Cochise County but basically another down day in Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties.
The 500 mb analysis for this morning (above from SPC) shows: TS Barry going ashore into Louisiana; the western anticyclone centered somewhere near Grand Junction, Colorado; and a weak, inverted trough from the southern GoC northeastward toward El Paso, Texas.
Still no sight of a pronounced feature (old TS/hurricane, large MCSs going westward over GoC, or strong inverted trough moving westward across northern Mexico) that would push serious amounts of mT air into southern Arizona. The mid-level high being in a favorable position is just not enough to make the thunderstorm season active at low elevations - a feature or two needs to get high moisture and CAPE northward into our area.
Morning sounding (below, also from SPC) is little changed from last several mornings, although winds have become light and variable below 600 mb.
Forecast of PW above (from the WRF-RR run for 12 UTC at Atmo) is valid at 4:00 pm this afternoon and shows moist and drier air butting heads over southeast Arizona. Radar forecast below from same run is for 3:30 pm this afternoon with strong storms over Santa Cruz County spreading into Pima County off to our southwest. Model forecast keeps most activity over mountains and off to west of Tucson. So it goes.
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