View north from Kitt Peak, about 8:30 am MST, shows light showers left over by earlier thunderstorms.
Morning sounding (above) shows considerable CAPE and PW is forecast to increase during day. Winds, however, light and variable, meaning storms will head toward most unstale low-levels and exhibit no consistent motion. The large MCS over northeastern Sonora (IR image below from 0730 UTC last night) has pushed moisture northward and produced a substantial increase this morning. The Td at Yuma jumped even earlier, with large increases into the 60s F beginning late yesterday.
Forecast of PW (above from 12 UTC WRF-NAM valid at 6:00 pm this evening) exhibits a classic GoC moisture surge pattern, with higher PW covering all of southern Arizona. The forecast sounding for TWC (below from same run and also valid at 6:00 pm) shows PW up from am values and conserable mixed layer CAPE - almost no winds aloft however. Forecast at bottom (from same run but valid at 6:30 pm) indicates very strong thunderstorms moving into parts of Pima County - thus, an interesting day on tap.
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