Above - light shower at sunrise yesterday (looking southeast from Santa Rita Abbey - 5 miles north-northwest of Sonoita - toward the Huachuca Mountains).
Very little thunderstorm activity yesterday except mountains of eastern Arizona (below, CG flashes detected for 24-hours ending at 01:00 am this morning). Forecast models are even more suppressed for today.
However, as 500 mb anticyclone shifts eastward (currently centered somewhere west of here) into New Mexico, storm activity increases considerably. Above shows GEFS plumes from 06 UTC run, for QPF at Tucson. The operational version of GFS is once again, much more moist than all the other members. The models also forecast a dramatic increase in PW for TUS during day tomorrow (below). The WRF-RR run at 12 UTC forecasts heavy thunderstorms moving into eastern Pima County by 5:30 pm MST tomorrow afternoon - bottom. Another watch and see situation.
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