Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Tucson Donut Hole Yesterday

View north from Kitt Peak at 2:45 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. There was a large donut hole over eastern Pima County, due mainly to the stabilizing impact of the Monday storms. Note the widespread, early morning activity across Maricopa County.

There is a wide band of clouds and storms ahead of a weak, inverted trough that is north-to-south across central Arizona. The IR image below is from 7:00 am.

This morning's TWC sounding (from SPC) is quite moist with about 1.75" of PW and moderate CAPE above 700 mb. Winds are easterly through the troposphere. The 500 mb analysis below (from SPC) shows the inverted trough to our west, as well a huge area of bad data around Flagstaff. Their sounding had very serious troubles and should never have been transmitted.

Forecast models for today range from another donut hole day to the lastest 12 UTC WRFRR, which forecasts some storms in eastern Pima County. It is a tough forecast because of the trough and early morning storm activity off to our west - a wait and see day.

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